Comparative evaluation of econometric models in terms of forecasting accuracy
https://doi.org/10.46845/2073-3364-2024-0-2-6-16
Abstract
Econometric models of time dynamics of change are developed on the example of three indicators of economic security and sustainable development of the Kaliningrad region, econometric models establishing the relationship between the base indicator and two factor indicators, as well as a comparative assessment of these models on the accuracy of predicting future values. The numerical values of the time series of the considered economic indicators are analyzed. A comparative assessment of the feasibility of using the estimated parameters of GRP with life expectancy and GRP parameters with Gini coefficient for forecasting future values of the analyzed regression dependencies is carried out. Based on the obtained assessment, the graphs of dependence of the estimated parameters with the predicted values and their actual values for different time intervals are given. The choice of the most acceptable equation for forecasting the estimated parameters for the next year is substantiated. The possibility of using additive and multiplicative two- factor models of the relationship between its values and the predicted values of average duration and Gini coefficient for forecasting gross regional product per capita is evaluated.
About the Authors
A. M. Karlov
Kaliningrad State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anatoly M. Karlov - Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor INOTECU
Kaliningrad
R. A. Mnatsakanyan
Kaliningrad State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Robert A. Mnatsakanyan - Candidate of Economic Sciences, senior lecturer INOTECU
Kaliningrad
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Review
For citations:
Karlov A.M., Mnatsakanyan R.A. Comparative evaluation of econometric models in terms of forecasting accuracy. Baltic Economic Journal. 2024;(2(46)):6-17. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46845/2073-3364-2024-0-2-6-16
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